Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 9.532759 11.198283 13.020180 15.154672 17.580103 20.243563 23.382634
2025-01-26 7.354017 9.721955 12.570804 16.219201 20.732769 26.096766 32.913149
2025-02-02 5.838658 8.546153 12.076973 16.942594 23.386098 31.530591 42.492103
2025-02-09 4.784793 7.660520 11.682091 17.578509 25.839303 36.815467 52.278571
2025-02-16 3.839028 6.688159 10.939609 17.534595 27.249583 40.735105 60.497184
2025-02-23 3.034454 5.738450 10.031916 17.054047 27.888123 43.536140 67.291204
2025-03-02 2.378332 4.877351 9.092872 16.345321 28.032139 45.544239 73.002272
2025-03-09 1.974255 4.359818 8.609508 16.255807 29.053650 48.847531 80.749311
2025-03-16 1.620299 3.854423 8.055454 15.951928 29.659578 51.508440 87.646526
2025-03-23 1.475837 3.730018 8.157283 16.772603 32.161747 57.270036 99.635058
2025-03-30 1.277944 3.449339 7.917859 16.938667 33.541677 61.294522 109.092734
2025-04-06 1.092578 3.153594 7.599364 16.907992 34.552362 64.749983 117.801350
2025-04-13 0.931587 2.884903 7.308856 16.923874 35.698815 68.599164 127.550012
2025-04-20 0.889068 2.903332 7.634288 18.203166 39.293178 76.887622 145.212141
2025-04-27 0.816625 2.826777 7.738348 19.039826 42.119010 84.010464 161.290391
2025-05-04 0.744048 2.731839 7.784519 19.755535 44.762199 90.958883 177.422751
2025-05-11 0.638024 2.511051 7.496256 19.711604 45.896516 95.244148 189.121829
2025-05-18 0.525044 2.233705 7.018777 19.182111 45.992922 97.610599 197.523308
2025-05-25 0.420919 1.948492 6.465265 18.399007 45.478779 98.776328 203.790913
2025-06-01 0.359295 1.789051 6.216559 18.300165 46.389449 102.687496 215.241406
2025-06-08 0.299517 1.613838 5.889468 17.964048 46.747318 105.531608 224.831686
2025-06-15 0.283317 1.606692 6.049770 18.871745 49.923681 114.090864 245.535408
2025-06-22 0.249684 1.514032 5.935820 19.055340 51.473679 119.468639 260.402290